Rupee begins week at 95.35 against US dollar amid Middle East chaos

Rupee began the week on a negative note, with market sentiment weighed down by a stronger dollar, rising crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions. On Monday, the domestic currency opened at 95.35 against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market, slipping 17 paise from its previous close of 95.18.

The decline comes after rupee posted its strongest single-day gain in nearly two months on Friday, when it appreciated 56 paise following the Reserve Bank's measures aimed at boosting foreign capital inflows and improving forex liquidity. Meanwhile, the currency has remained under pressure since the Middle East crisis began, hitting multiple record lows, even breaching the 96 per US dollar mark.



Forex traders said that investors remained cautious due to tensions in the Middle East and strong US economic data. At the same time, US economic figures also remain in focus which could provide clues about the US Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions.


The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was trading 0.42% higher at 95.33.

Crude oil prices also remained under focus, with Brent crude rising 3.43%to $96.28 per barrel in futures trade. The surge came as tensions in the Middle East continued to simmer more than 100 days into the conflict with Iran and Israel exchanging missile strikes.

"Although Israeli authorities reported that all missiles were intercepted and no casualties occurred, the episode served as a reminder that geopolitical risks remain elevated. US President Donald Trump has urged restraint from both sides and called for renewed negotiations with Iran, but markets remain cautious and so does rupee," CR Forex Advisors MD, Amit Pabari told PTI.

Pabari further added that the medium-term outlook for the USD/INR pair remains positive, with USD-INR likely to break below 94.50 and gradually move towards the 94.00-93.80 zone, external factors will remain crucial.

"Any escalation in US-Iran tensions, leading to a stronger dollar or higher oil prices, could temporarily push the pair back towards the 95.30-95.50 range," he said.

The weak sentiment was also reflected at the Dalal Street in early trade. BSE Sensex fell 724.95 points to 73,518.39, while the Nifty declined 222.45 points to 23,138.60. According to exchange data, foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 8,776.25 crore on a net basis on Friday.

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