inflation forecast

All Eyes On June 5 Statement As Gulf Crisis Nears 100 Days

Acknowledging the impact of the West Asia crisis, the RBI has said that several factors will help India counter the negative effects and emerge strong.

Industry Expects Rural Demand To Soften I Festive Sales May Suffer I Inflation A Worry

India's economy shows 'cautious resilience' despite global headwinds like Middle East conflict and rising oil prices. While manufacturing and services remain strong, and forex reserves offer a buffer, inflation concerns are mounting due to wholesale price surges. A weaker monsoon could further challenge growth and rural demand.

India faces a turbulent weather season as a strengthening El Niño threatens deficient monsoon rainfall, impacting crops and water supplies. Experts warn of erratic rain patterns, with long dry spells and intense bursts, potentially devastating rain-fed agriculture. This climate shock, coupled with economic pressures, could lead to significant food inflation and strain household budgets.

Indian markets remained steady near record highs despite rising oil prices due to Iran tensions. Strong corporate earnings, particularly from Dollar Tree and Kohl's, bolstered investor confidence. While some companies faced headwinds from higher fuel costs, others like Snowflake saw significant gains driven by AI growth. Inflation data showed a slight acceleration, impacting Treasury yields.

Indian stock markets experienced a significant downturn on Friday. Investor wealth saw a substantial decline of Rs 5.77 lakh crore. Benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty50, plunged sharply in the final trading hour. Concerns over a weaker monsoon outlook and geopolitical uncertainty fueled the sell-off. Broad-based selling pressure was observed across various sectors.

Gold prices are expected to remain steady this week, influenced by US-Iran talks and upcoming US economic data. Silver, however, may continue to outperform due to geopolitical tensions and high crude oil prices. Investors await signals on the Federal Reserve's next policy move amidst shifting statements from Washington and Tehran.

India's transportation fuel demand growth is set for a sharp slowdown in late 2026. Higher prices, government conservation efforts, and a weakening rupee are impacting mobility. Analysts have significantly cut growth forecasts, with petrol demand facing the steepest decline due to reduced commuting and discretionary travel.

India's retail inflation remains largely unaffected by West Asian conflict, with SBI retaining its FY27 forecast at 4.5%. While imported inflation eased slightly, rising food prices, particularly tomatoes, are a key driver. Future trends hinge on energy price pass-through and summer crop progress, with the RBI flagging upside risks.

Inflation has cooled, but the food industry has modernized everything its customers can see while the machinery behind the shelf still runs on fax confirmations and spreadsheets. A Stanford researcher argues that hidden gap is quietly inflating grocery prices, and that artificial intelligence, used well, is finally capable of closing it.

Governor Malhotra Says Flexible Inflation Targeting May Not Be Enough Amid Crisis

Fuel prices in India saw their first hike in four years, with petrol and diesel increasing by Rs 3. This move aims to alleviate significant daily losses incurred by oil marketing companies, estimated at Rs 1,000 crore. While consumer inflation may see a slight uptick, the fiscal impact is considered minimal, with annual consumption expected to recover.