El Niño alarm rings as monsoon forecast weakens; patchy rains, heat and inflation risks loom

MUMBAI: As the southwest monsoon prepares to sweep across Kerala and move northward, a new climate briefing has sounded a warning that India may be heading into a turbulent weather season, with a rapidly strengthening El Niño threatening not just rainfall but also crops, water supplies and household budgets.The briefing by Climate Trends comes against the backdrop of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revising its 2026 monsoon outlook downward from 92% to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), placing the country perilously close to a deficient monsoon category.The forecast carries a sharper concern beneath the headline number: IMD estimates a 60% probability of deficient rainfall, compared with only a 24% chance of below-normal rainfall.For millions waiting for relief from blistering summer heat — including residents of Mumbai and other water-stressed cities — experts say the bigger danger may not simply be less rain, but how and when the rain falls.According to the report, global climate models and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) point to a rapidly evolving El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. NOAA projects an 82% probability of El Niño developing during May-July and a 96% likelihood of it persisting through winter 2026-27.Climate models indicate nearly a two-in-three chance of a strong to very strong El Niño by late 2026, reviving memories of past “Super El Niño” events that disrupted weather patterns worldwide.Since 1950, the world has witnessed only four such events — 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98 and 2015-16 — with the strongest temperature anomaly recorded during 1982-83.India’s weather history offers little comfort. Around 60% of El Niño years since 1951 have produced deficient or below-normal monsoon rainfall.Meteorologists caution, however, that seasonal rainfall totals tell only part of the story.Professor Raghu Murtugudde, visiting professor at IIT Kanpur and emeritus professor at the University of Maryland, said the distribution of rainfall may matter more than the aggregate number.Instead of steady monsoon showers, India could witness long dry spells punctuated by bursts of heavy rain, alongside more frequent “break monsoon” phases. Such interruptions, experts warn, can be devastating for kharif sowing and early crop growth.The concern is particularly acute because nearly 52% of India’s cultivated land remains rain-fed. Agricultural experts say delayed onset or prolonged dry spells beyond a week can sharply reduce soil moisture and force farmers into greater dependence on irrigation.Dr G V Ramanjaneyulu of the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture warned that reduced rainfall could prevent groundwater recharge and affect even irrigated crops such as rice.The implications go far beyond farms. A weak monsoon can depress reservoir levels, lower hydropower generation and intensify urban water stress.For Mumbai residents familiar with anxious monsoon tracking to assess lake levels supplying drinking water, the report highlights how rainfall variability — rather than seasonal averages alone — may increasingly dictate water security.Climate scientist and Skymet Weather president GP Sharma said the evolving El Niño could rival historic Super El Niño events.He warned that 2026 may rank among the warmest years on record, with 2027 potentially becoming even hotter as El Niño amplifies global warming.The report notes that El Niño typically pushes up global temperatures after its peak phase. A similar pattern was observed after the 2023 El Niño, followed by record warmth in 2024.Another concern is the possibility of humid heatwaves across northwest India if monsoon progress slows.Experts warn that delayed monsoon advance, combined with moisture inflow from the Arabian Sea and hot continental winds, could create oppressive conditions.The economic consequences may also ripple through households.With rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions and concerns over fertiliser availability, experts say climate shocks may collide with inflationary pressures.Climate Trends associate director Archana Chaudhary described the situation as a “compound shock”, warning that erratic rains combined with heat and high energy prices could strain food inflation, rural demand and industrial water use.There is, however, one potential mitigating factor — the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).A positive IOD, which promotes warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean, can sometimes offset El Niño’s drying influence.Forecasts suggest positive IOD conditions may strengthen later this year, but experts caution that IOD alone may not be powerful enough to neutralise a strong El Niño, unless it turns strongly positive as witnessed in 2019.With monsoon onset over Kerala expected around the first week of June, forecasters and policymakers alike will now watch not only whether the rains arrive on time — but whether they stay, spread and sustain.