Why are new COVID variants concerning?
The new Omicron variant has set off another wave of fear and chaos in and around the world.
As per latest WHO reports, the B.1.1.529 variant has been detected in about 38 countries, with no cases of deaths so far. In India itself, the tally has jumped to 21 cases, with 17 fresh cases in a day.
Given that the "heavily mutated" variant has spread to several countries in such a short span of time, scientists have warned that the new variant could be extremely virulent and infectious. However. The World Health Organization (WHO) has said that it could take weeks to determine how transmissible the variant is and whether or not it can cause more severe illness, while escaping vaccine-induced immunity.
In light of new emerging variants, including the Delta, which drove the second COVID wave in India, experts around the world have suggested that a more dangerous "super strain" could be in play. But while it's all speculative, we spoke to an Infectious Disease Specialist to decode the same.
Viruses are programmed to mutate
"Viruses are like multiple other organisms in this world like bacteria, parasites, fungus, and all the living organisms change as time goes on, which is what we call evolution," says Dr Pruthu Narendra Dhekane, Consultant- Infectious Diseases, Fortis Hospitals Bannerghatta Road, Bengaluru.
He adds by saying that the changes occur as a form of survival and to proliferate better in the environment. Just like any other virus, SARs-COV-2 is bound to mutate and change quickly. Having said that, when the molecular structure changes are not very big, it is called a variant, and if it is a very big change that leads to a significantly different structure of the virus, it is called a mutation, which is certainly the case with the Omicron.
Currently, there are five variants of concern namely, Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), Delta (B.1.617.2) and the most recent Omicron (B.1.1.529), first detected in South Africa.
Is the new variant Omicron more transmissible?
Omicron - the new variant of concern is said to have over 30 mutations in the spike protein itself, making it stand out from the previous coronavirus strains. Considering the rapid surge in the number of COVID-19 cases, experts believe that the Omicron variant may in fact evade vaccine-induced immunity, could be more evolved and probably more transmissible.
In a statement, the WHO said, "Based on the evidence presented indicative of a detrimental change in Covid-19 epidemiology... the WHO has designated B.1.1.529 as a variant of concern (VOC), named Omicron." "If another major surge of Covid-19 takes place driven by Omicron, consequences may be severe," it added.
However, while there have been no cases of hospitalisation and deaths linked to the new Omicron variant, the discussions around whether the variant is more severe than the Delta strain is ongoing.
Can the combination of Omicron and Delta lead to a super strain?
By now, many would agree that the emergence of a new variant is not a matter of surprise, since viruses are meant to mutate. Since the onset of COVID-19, the SARs-COV-2 virus has only evolved, mutating to more severe strains.
But what next? While the viruses will never stop mutating and new variants will continue to emerge, experts believe the next big thing could be a more powerful and stronger hybrid 'super strain'. This could mean a super variant that could be a by-product of both Delta and Omicron and be more evolved at infecting people and making them more ill. This phenomenon is called viral recombination.
Read also: Coronavirus: Why the new COVID variant is named Omicron
What is viral recombination?
Scientifically, a viral recombination occurs when viruses of two different parent strains infect the same host cell and exchange mutations during replication to produce a virus progeny that have some genes from both parents.
Epidemiologists have been studying and observing any signs of viral recombination in respect to COVID-19. However, it is highly rare and up until now, there has been no proof to document such a phenomenon.
According to Dr Dhekane, "Combination of Omicron and Delta cannot be correlated as two different enemies combining forces to form a better force. This is a difficult question to answer. It is a suspect lab In vitro possibility that scientists and molecular biologists have thought about."
While viruses will change, have variants, lead to mutations and when these different mutations and variants come together, they might lead to the formation of a newer, more or less lethal variant, it could probably change its host, based upon the molecular structure. Having said that, the doctor believes it is too difficult or early to speculate anything.
The future of COVID vaccines
While no COVID vaccine provides 100% immunity and instances of breakthrough infections have been reported in the past, there is no telling how effective they will prove against the Omicron variant.
Given that the new variant contains over 30 mutations in the spike protein, it is said to possess an "immune escape mechanism". This has prompted experts to suggest that COVID-19 vaccines may in fact need an update. It may have to be "tweaked" to fit the new emerging strains.
Recently, Moderna CEO suggested that the existing vaccines may be less effective against the new variant. Prior to this statement, the drugmaker company announced that an Omicron variant vaccine could be ready by early next year.
What measures should we take to keep safe?
As of the now, the key to curbing the spread of the virus and preventing another wave of devastation is by following COVID-appropriate measures. Wearing masks, maintaining distance and avoiding crowded areas are our best shot against the deadly virus.
On the government front, states have been urged to increase COVID-19 testing facilities, and expand surveillance. International travel guidelines have been revised, which means passengers will have to perform post-arrival RT-PCR, wherein the samples will be taken for genome sequencing.