Congress vs regional parties: Why assembly election results may not change INDIA bloc’s power dynamics

NEW DELHI: When regional parties had come under one banner as the INDIA bloc ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections to fight the BJP, the pressure was on the Congress to fight for a meaningful role and stay relevant in the opposition space. Not only were these regional leaders reluctant to accept the leadership of the grand-old-party, many even wanted to keep it out by openly advocating for a non-BJP, non-Congress front.

Cut to 2026
After a string of electoral reverses over the last year, the space and influence of regional players in the opposition space has shrunk so much that suddenly there appears to be little challenge to Congress’s leadership in the alliance. Ironically, the Congress should thank the BJP for making a part of this happen.



Three powerful regional satraps - Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee and MK Stalin - who were key players in the INDIA bloc, are now out of power. While the BJP defeated Kejriwal in Delhi and Mamata in West Bengal, Stalin was swept out of power by the debut performance of actor-politician Vijay in Tamil Nadu.

Congress vs regional parties
The tussle between the Congress and the regional parties has been a defining feature of the INDIA bloc since its inception. So much so that critics often referred to the INDIA bloc as a grouping of disparate political parties united by their opposition to the BJP and not any shared ideological foundation.

So, what was the genesis of this friction? Well, it was two-fold. First, it involved how Congress took over the leadership of the bloc; second, it stemmed from the historical political rivalry between the grand-old party and these regional players.

Did Congress ‘hijack’ leadership of INDIA bloc?
The groundwork for the opposition coalition was done by the regional parties, led by Nitish Kumar, the then chief minister of Bihar. However, the Congress was quick to take control of the bloc. So, while the first meeting of the opposition coalition in June 2023 was held in Patna under the leadership of Nitish, the second meeting held a month later in Bengaluru was dominated by the Congress. What followed from there was a game of one-upmanship with both the Congress and the regional players missing no opportunity to assert themselves. From taking key decisions to seat-sharing, the differences between the allies came out in the open with disturbing regularity.

The historical perspective
Now, let’s take a look at the old political rivalry between the Congress and some of its allies to understand this friction. When Congress became a part of the INDIA bloc, it was forced to join hands with many regional parties that were its sworn political rivals for a long time. The post 2014 political decline forced Congress to find a middle path between survival and revival. So, while it made compromises for survival, it also tried to keep options open for revival. This dichotomy explained to some extent the love-hate relationship Congress had with its regional allies.


For instance, in Delhi, the Congress lost power to Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP. Kejriwal’s victory not only marked the end of Sheila Dikshit’s 15-year rule but also led to the party eventually being wiped out from the assembly. So, the Congress-AAP bonhomie under the INDIA banner was essential for the survival of the grand-old-party. However, when AAP refused to cede much ground, the Congress changed gears and broke ranks to focus on the party’s revival. Numbers show that the Congress played a key role in AAP’s defeat in 2025 by dividing votes and helping the BJP in the process.

When Lalu Prasad won Bihar in 1990, it literally marked the beginning of the end of the Congress in the state. Lalu’s RJD not just defeated the Congress, it ensured that the grand-old-party was gradually pushed to the fringes of state politics. Ironically, 36 years later, the Congress is still struggling to stay relevant in the state. Despite this, the Congress was forced to join hands with Lalu’s party to stop the spread of the BJP.

Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the Congress was forced to join hands with the DMK, forgetting the past ignominy it had suffered. To add to the Congress’s woes in the state, the DMK had openly rejected the grand-old-party’s plea to share power if the coalition won the elections. Little wonder then, the Congress swiftly snapped ties with the DMK once the results were out.

There are several such examples from the past to show how the Congress has struggled to regain its lost ground after being dethroned by the regional parties.

Loss of regional parties = gain for Congress?
Well, logically yes. With the regional parties usurping Congress space in most of the states, the grand-old-party should be happy about their decline. But can the Congress reclaim its lost political space? Now that has been an uphill task for the party with little success to show.

For instance, in Odisha, the BJD led by Biju Patnaik dethroned the Congress to rule the state. For a long time, the Congress was the main opposition party in Odisha. Then entered the BJP. The saffron party took the BJD head-on and defeated it to capture power. The Congress ended up being pushed to third place. In fact, it will not come as a surprise if the Congress actually ends up aligning with the BJD to counter the growing influence of the BJP in the state. So here, the loss of regional parties did not translate into gains for the Congress. On the contrary, it now has a much stronger challenge at hand.

However, the Congress did appear happy in the defeat of some political rivals, even if it meant immediate gains for the BJP. Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP is a case in point. In Delhi, the Congress perhaps did not mind reports that its decision to contest the assembly elections independently played a key role in the defeat of AAP. After all, Kejriwal and Rahul Gandhi seldom got along.

Why is Congress not celebrating the defeat of regional parties?
That brings us to the question of why the Congress is not celebrating the loss of regional heavyweights as it perhaps normally would have? When Mamata Banerjee lost West Bengal to the BJP, some members of the Congress were celebrating her defeat. Strangely, Rahul Gandhi, who has often targeted the Trinamool chief, did not share the enthusiasm of his leaders and instead ended up sermoning them.

A day after Mamata’s crushing defeat at the hands of the BJP, Rahul took to X to send across this message: “Some in the Congress, and others, are gloating about TMC’s loss. They need to understand this clearly - the theft of Assam and Bengal’s mandate is a big step forward by the BJP in its mission to destroy Indian democracy. Put petty politics aside. This is not about one party or another. This is about India.”

This reaction was clearly very different from what one would have anticipated, given the fact that Rahul had led the Congress’s fight against Mamata.

And not just Rahul, even Mamata Banerjee, seemed to have changed her tune after poll rout and pressed the “unite” button for the INDIA bloc. Mamata, who till now endorsed INDIA bloc’s programme on a case-to-case basis, tied her fightback hopes to the force of unity of the opposition coalition.

In a Facebook live, Mamata said members of the INDIA bloc were likely to meet in the first week of June to discuss a joint strategy, while asserting that the opposition camp was prepared for a prolonged political battle.

In fact, a day after West Bengal results were out, Mamata had expressed gratitude to the INDIA bloc leaders for standing with her. "I am grateful to INDIA bloc. Sonia ji, Arvind (Kejriwal), Akhilesh (Yadav), Uddhav Thackeray, Hemant Soren - they all called me. My target is very clear. I will strengthen the INDIA team, just like a small person. I don't have any chair now, so I am a commoner, " Mamata had then said.

With a string of electoral losses in the last two years, all stakeholders of the INDIA bloc realise that the BJP is the bigger political enemy for them, the very idea that had forced them to come together in the run-up to the 2024 polls. Perhaps, the limited success of 2024, when they together prevented the BJP from reaching the majority mark on its own in Lok Sabha, had triggered a game of one-upmanship between the Congress and the regional players. Now with both equally battered by the BJP - the reset button may perhaps be pressed again.