us gdp forecast

Canada's economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in the first quarter, marking two consecutive quarters of decline and sparking debate over a technical recession. Prolonged U.S. tariff uncertainty and geopolitical headwinds have impacted business investment and driven up domestic prices, though some economists dispute the recession label due to a lack of widespread weakness.

Acknowledging the impact of the West Asia crisis, the RBI has said that several factors will help India counter the negative effects and emerge strong.

Gold prices are expected to remain steady this week, influenced by US-Iran talks and upcoming US economic data. Silver, however, may continue to outperform due to geopolitical tensions and high crude oil prices. Investors await signals on the Federal Reserve's next policy move amidst shifting statements from Washington and Tehran.

To secure supplies amid restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, India increased purchases of Russian Urals crude after the temporary easing of US sanctions, according to available data up to April.

Israel is moving towards elections faster than expected, Netanyahu's coalition is cracking, and polls suggest his bloc is short of a governing majority. Does that mean the end of the road for Israel's longest-serving prime minister?

Pakistan's economy faces sustained pressure with double-digit inflation likely to persist due to surging global oil prices amid the Middle East crisis. Rising energy costs and regional instability are projected to slow GDP growth and widen the current account deficit, impacting the stock market and currency.

The India Meteorological Department has forecast the possibility of El Nino conditions during the South West monsoon season. Economists and experts note that a weak monsoon will add to the woes caused by higher crude oil prices, and fertilizer supply disruptions.

For RBI the situation is clear: The resilience of the global economy, already inflicted with trade tensions, is being tested by the conflict in West Asia. The biggest takeaway from the RBI bulletin is that India’s domestic supply chains may come under risk from a prolonged war scenario, though strong macroeconomic fundamentals provide a buffer.

In fact, IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (April 2026) sees India sitting at the sixth spot this financial year too. What has led to the sudden fall? Why has India dropped to the sixth position, falling behind the UK, instead of overtaking Japan to become the fourth largest economy?

In India, growth for 2025 is revised upward by 1.0 percentage point relative to October, to 7.6 percent. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted that, in the absence of the conflict, growth projections for 2026 might have been revised upward to 3.4 percent.

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices may trade range-bound with a bearish bias as a breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks remains elusive, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

S&P Global in its latest report titled India's Strong Fundamentals Would Cushion The Blow Of An Oil Shock says India is equipped to handle some strain. The report assumes a base case scenario of oil prices at an average of $130 per barrel for 2026 and $100 in 2027.

The central bank governor is of the view that this will provide the Indian economy with ‘greater resilience’ to withstand shocks. However, the downside risks to growth projections remain, especially in case of a prolonged West Asia conflict.

Gold price prediction today: Amid the Middle East conflict, gold prices are likely to see limited upside in the short-term, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

So far, not badly. High forex reserves & low inflation cushioned the first blows. GOI’s managed to avoid a crude oil supply shock. It all depends now, on when the conflict ends

The RBI kept its policy rate at 5.25% for the second consecutive meeting, citing concerns over elevated crude oil prices and global uncertainties. Governor Malhotra expressed cautious optimism, assuring markets that temporary forex measures were aimed at curbing speculation and would be reviewed. The central bank also eased capital norms for banks to support credit growth.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman highlighted India's strong debt management, with an 81% debt-to-GDP ratio, positioning it favorably among major economies amidst global economic volatility. The ongoing Middle East conflict poses a systemic threat to global energy, impacting supply chains and economic stability, while the RBI's MPC begins deliberations amid inflation concerns.

Gold price prediction today: Gold is trading as a risk asset and not a safe haven asset, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

The bank has reduced its 12-month Nifty target, for end-March 2027, to 25,900 from an earlier 29,300. This suggests expected returns of about 13% in rupee terms and 12% in dollar terms over the next year, which is lower than the 19% upside projected for the MXAPJ index.

S&P Global Ratings has revised down the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.5% and 2026 to 1.7%, citing uncertainties from reciprocal tariffs announced by the US. While anticipating a slowdown, S&P doesn't foresee a US recession, but acknowledges downside risks due to potential tariff impacts on the real economy and global trade.

FACTBOX-Fed staff forecasts from FOMC minutes:FACTBOX-Fed staff forecasts from FOMC minutes

India’s liabilities have increased, and forecasts show no end in sight. While India is a fast-growing economy and considered one of the main emerging economies, it has been investing and borrowing money from commercial banks and NBFCs, and its national debt today makes up almost 70% of its GDP.