trade policy uncertainty

India's economic horizon is looking promising, with the Reserve Bank of India forecasting a robust 6.9% GDP growth for the fiscal year 2026-27. Yet, challenges loom as global tensions, particularly in West Asia, and escalating energy costs could disrupt this trajectory. Inflation is predicted to rise slightly to 4.6%, while the RBI targets a steady 4%.

Acknowledging the impact of the West Asia crisis, the RBI has said that several factors will help India counter the negative effects and emerge strong.

Gold prices are expected to remain steady this week, influenced by US-Iran talks and upcoming US economic data. Silver, however, may continue to outperform due to geopolitical tensions and high crude oil prices. Investors await signals on the Federal Reserve's next policy move amidst shifting statements from Washington and Tehran.

The Kansas City Chiefs could reportedly revisit trade talks for A.J. Brown after fresh off-field issues involving Rashee Rice. Rice is expected to miss OTAs and minicamp following a reported probation violation tied to a positive marijuana test. NFL insider Albert Breer suggested Kansas City may need to explore reliable receiver options, with Brown emerging as a potential blockbuster target for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense.

Asian markets rallied Friday, buoyed by hopes of US-Iran peace talks, though volatile oil prices and Strait of Hormuz concerns fueled inflation worries. Tokyo led gains as investor sentiment improved. Despite diplomatic optimism, rising crude prices prompted reassessment of global interest rate expectations, with the US Federal Reserve potentially hiking rates later this year.

Indians are adapting their gold purchases, opting for lighter, more affordable jewellery and exploring alternatives like silver and diamonds. While tradition remains strong, consumers are making conscious choices, balancing emotional value with investment prudence. Experts suggest a diversified portfolio, with gold as a long-term hedge, as the industry navigates changing consumer behavior and economic shifts.

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices may gain if oil prices fall, but the rise is likely to be capped, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

The CEA’s words could not be more direct and the situation the world’s sixth largest economy faces is by no means small. Several macroeconomic indicators are in focus; inflation, health of the current account, and the exchange rate.

A bold overhaul of higher education aims to align degrees with emerging industries, transforming classrooms into pathways for jobs and nation-building

US President Trump revealed Chinese President Xi Jinping desires the Strait of Hormuz reopened to stabilize global energy markets. Both leaders reportedly agreed on the necessity of this crucial shipping route's resumption. Discussions also touched upon potential increased Chinese purchases of American oil and agricultural products, alongside ongoing tensions regarding Taiwan.

India is preparing to send ships through the Strait of Hormuz to secure vital crude oil and energy cargoes amid ongoing disruptions. The government is finalizing plans for Indian vessels to navigate the waterway, which handles a significant portion of global oil flows, as shipping activity has slowed due to the Iran conflict.

Persistent foreign fund outflows and the rupee sliding to record lows have further dampened sentiment, prompting investors to stay cautious and intensify selling across equity markets.

Canadian tourism to the US has plummeted by an average of 42%, significantly impacting major cities and industry-linked mid-sized towns. This sharp decline, attributed to President Trump's trade war, also affects business travel, with fewer tech and finance employees journeying for work. The future of cross-border travel recovery remains uncertain under current trade conditions.

China's economic recovery is facing headwinds as factories slow and consumer spending falters, with April data revealing a significant slowdown. Weak domestic demand, coupled with a challenging global environment marked by geopolitical conflicts and rising energy costs, is squeezing growth. While exports remain strong, they are insufficient to offset internal weaknesses, prompting concerns about the need for further policy support.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar criticized "unilateral coercive measures" and sanctions, stating they disproportionately harm developing nations and cannot replace diplomacy. He also voiced concern over the West Asia crisis, emphasizing the need for uninterrupted maritime traffic and a sustained ceasefire in Gaza, advocating for a two-state solution.

US courts have again blocked Trump's 10% global tariffs, deeming them unauthorized. This ruling, following earlier tariff invalidations, signals a return to WTO's MFN rates. For India, this policy instability raises concerns, prompting advice to pause Free Trade Agreement talks until US trade systems stabilize, preventing one-sided deals.

Prime Minister Modi urged Indians to halt gold purchases for a year to protect foreign exchange reserves, a call supported by GTRI which highlighted a surge in gold imports straining the trade balance. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw echoed the appeal, emphasizing reduced import spending amid Middle East conflict, leading to a sell-off in jewellery stocks.

As India opens its markets through FTAs, domestic cost structures, especially those linked to GST credit accumulation, become even more critical to ensure a level playing field.

India’s gold imports hit a record $71.98 billion in 2025-26, rising over 24% from $58 billion a year earlier. This was largely due to skyrocketing global gold prices, which have bumped up the value of imported gold.

US employers added a robust 115,000 jobs in April, surpassing expectations despite global economic uncertainty from the Iran conflict. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Healthcare and transportation sectors saw significant hiring, while manufacturing experienced job cuts. This resilient labor market suggests the Federal Reserve may hold off on interest rate cuts as inflation remains a concern.

The Indian rupee is facing significant pressure, weakening against the US dollar due to soaring crude oil prices driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and persistent foreign fund outflows. Despite India's robust economic growth, the currency's slide continues as the Reserve Bank of India intervenes to curb volatility rather than target a specific exchange rate.

RBI is not alone in repatriating its gold reserves. Several central banks like France’s Banque de France, Germany’s Deutsche Bundesbank, Serbia’s National Bank have done the same - buy why?