global trade tensions

Acknowledging the impact of the West Asia crisis, the RBI has said that several factors will help India counter the negative effects and emerge strong.

India's economic horizon is looking promising, with the Reserve Bank of India forecasting a robust 6.9% GDP growth for the fiscal year 2026-27. Yet, challenges loom as global tensions, particularly in West Asia, and escalating energy costs could disrupt this trajectory. Inflation is predicted to rise slightly to 4.6%, while the RBI targets a steady 4%.

The Indian rupee hit a record low of 96.70 against the US dollar on Tuesday, extending its losing streak to eight sessions. Rising crude oil prices, foreign fund outflows, and a strong dollar due to global risk aversion are key factors. Forex traders also cited supply-chain disruptions. The Reserve Bank of India's intervention and import restrictions might offer some support.

Wall Street surged Tuesday, buoyed by optimistic Iran conflict talks and robust tech stock performance. Easing bond yields further supported the rally, pushing major indices near record highs. United Airlines and Carnival saw gains as oil prices stabilized. Micron Technology was a standout performer, driven by AI optimism.

The Indian rupee continued its decline against the US dollar, falling 18 paise to 96.38 amid rising crude oil prices and Middle East tensions. The currency has lost over 5% since late February, with concerns over geopolitical instability and foreign portfolio investor outflows pressuring its value.

Indian oil company stocks surged up to 6% on Monday following a government fuel price hike. This rally was further boosted by a significant drop in global crude prices, driven by easing US-Iran tensions and hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent and WTI crude futures saw substantial declines, marking their lowest levels in two weeks.

Oil prices dropped significantly as markets reacted to optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal, despite President Trump urging negotiators not to rush. Key issues like the Strait of Hormuz and frozen assets remain unresolved, tempering expectations for an imminent breakthrough in the ongoing conflict.

Gold prices are expected to remain steady this week, influenced by US-Iran talks and upcoming US economic data. Silver, however, may continue to outperform due to geopolitical tensions and high crude oil prices. Investors await signals on the Federal Reserve's next policy move amidst shifting statements from Washington and Tehran.

The Indian rupee strengthened significantly against the US dollar, closing at 95.26, driven by positive global sentiment surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal and easing West Asian tensions. RBI Governor's assurance of orderly forex market movements and positive remarks on the rupee's valuation also boosted confidence.

Dalal Street braces for a week of global uncertainty, with Middle East tensions, crude oil prices, and foreign investor behavior dominating market sentiment. Hopes for US-Iran negotiation progress offer a glimmer of optimism, but caution prevails. Investors will also monitor the rupee's movement and the RBI's significant dividend payout.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman expressed openness to investor concerns regarding capital gains tax, assuring that the government will consider stakeholder suggestions. She also defended recent fuel price hikes, attributing them to global crude oil costs and highlighting the government's prior absorption of excise duties.

During their discussions, President Trump and Xi Jinping placed Taiwan at the forefront of their diplomatic agenda. Trump perceives arms sales to Taiwan as a way to gain leverage, whereas Taiwan insists on its importance for regional harmony. Given its strategic significance in the technology sector, especially in chip manufacturing, any tension involving Taiwan could disturb the global economy.

NSE Report Shows 38.6% Jump In Equity Cash Turnover Amid Strong April Rally

Global powers are now vying for India's attention, recognizing its growing influence. While the US seeks to bolster trade, India has been actively forging significant trade agreements, positioning itself as a reliable and indispensable partner in a shifting geopolitical landscape.