Ducking for Cover

With the war in Iraq only hours away, the focus must inevitably shift to what it is that New Delhi can do to minimise the costs of the conflict for us.
In immediate terms, there are two major concerns. First, the price and supply of crude oil. Secondly, the fate of the large community of Indian migrant workers spread all across the Gulf region. To address the last question first. Compared to the last Gulf War, which resulted in a mass exodus of Indian workers not just from the immediate theatre of war but from the entire region, this one may not cause similar dislocation. To begin with, there are hardly any Indian workers in Iraq today. The less than 50 or so Indians, including diplomatic staff who were still “officially� in the country as of last week, according to foreign minister Yashwant Sinha, have already been evacuated.
Analysts also believe that unlike in the past, Saddam today has neither the intent nor the necessary military muscle to attack neighbouring countries. Washington''s estimates of Iraqi firepower — including alleged weapons of mass destruction — are vastly exaggerated. What''s more, Saddam will rather use what little he has left — after more than a decade of economic sanctions, arms embargoes and UN inspections — against the invading Anglo-American army, and perhaps Israel, than on Arab neighbours. Yet, war by its nature is an uncertain business that defies rational prediction.
And no one should totally discount Washington''s repeated threat that it might, if need be, even use tactical nukes to subdue Saddam. Needless to say, this doomsday scenario is liable to create unprecedented civilian alarm, throwing the entire region into turbulence and chaos. New Delhi''s crisis management group on Iraq would therefore do well to prepare an emergency exit plan. Then there is oil. The hope in New Delhi is clearly for a short, swift war which does not unduly affect either the supplies or the price of oil. While it is likely that in the face of certain defeat, Saddam will re-enact what his retreated army did in Kuwait in 1991, namely to set on fire oil fields, this may not cause a major glitch in the short run. The world''s biggest oil cartel — OPEC — has said that it will bump up production to make up for the shortfall. Petroleum minister Ram Naik has meanwhile repeatedly claimed that necessary reserves are in place to take care of any immediate hiccups. But this, remember, is the best case scenario. One can only hope that the CMG has plans B & C ready to deal with a less optimistic future.