Grant Thornton

Fuel prices have risen sharply, adding to household expenses and transportation costs. This surge, driven by global events, is straining supply chains and impacting everyday goods. Oil marketing companies are seeing stock gains. The government faces a balancing act between consumer relief and revenue. The economic outlook remains a focus amidst these challenges.

According to the government, India has around 60 days of petroleum supplies in various forms including strategic reserves. But if 20% of the world’s crude supply remains disrupted over 2.5 months of the war, where is India getting its oil from?

Experts have hailed the MOUs, calling them game-changing for India’s energy security in the long-term. The importance of having strategic petroleum reserves has been brought to light with stark clarity due to the US-Iran war.

While the data is at a record high, the biggest factor driving the surge has been the growth in import-led revenues which outpaced domestic transactions. To put it simply, the GST collections from imports were higher than those from domestic transactions.

While the world order evolves, and UAE’s decision impacts other major oil producers around the world, India which imports around 90% of its crude needs may actually stand to benefit.

In March, with the US sanctions waiver in effect, India has aggressively procured Russian crude, picking up millions of barrels. India has never officially said that it will stop buying Russian crude, and even when levels dropped after sanctions, Russia was still the biggest contributor.

Global oil markets face turmoil due to the Iran-US conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. India, heavily reliant on oil imports, feels the pinch through rising inflation and borrowing costs. The Reserve Bank of India monitors the situation, opting for stability over aggressive action. Households may experience a gradual tightening of budgets as costs rise and monetary easing is delayed.

India's automotive and EV sector began 2026 with cautious deal-making, recording 35 deals worth $745 million in Q1. While overall deal value dipped due to fewer large transactions, private equity fueled growth, particularly in EVs and mobility-as-a-service, indicating a continued shift towards electrification.

India's nuclear ambitions have reached a pivotal stage with the Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor achieving criticality, marking a significant step in its three-stage nuclear program. This advancement positions India as a leader in advanced nuclear technology, bolstering its drive for energy self-reliance and security amidst a rapidly expanding power sector.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow stretch which is important for global trade flows, and is alone responsible for the transit of a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Asian economies like India and China source a big chunk of their crude oil, LPG, and LNG requirements via this strait.

Even as it is confident of India’s ability to come out of the fresh global uncertainty, RBI has flagged five risks due to the US-Iran war that could negatively impact the economy.

A Grant Thornton Bharat survey showed that the financial services industry has witnessed a 14% increase in the prevalence of ESOPs, leading other sectors and is closely trailed by the manufacturing and auto sectors, which each saw a 9% rise.

There were 199 M&A and financing deals worth $3.5 billion in November, says Grant Thornton's Bharat Dealtracker. That was a 34% increase in deal volumes compared with the same period last year, but the total value was nearly half of the year-ago figure.

May proved to be a busy month with India Inc inking 190 deals aggregating $19.1 billion. The mergers & acquisitions (M&As) recorded the second-highest monthly values in four years. In May this year, 40 M&A deals at $11.9 billion were recorded, driven by Adani Group’s $10.