Winds of change in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu may steady NDA's ship in Parliament

NEW DELHI: Just when it appeared that a united opposition can derail govt's ambitious legislative agenda and disturb its narrative - drilled home by the defeat of its bill to amend women's reservation law in LS in last session - a smoother road appears to have opened up for BJP-led NDA in and outside Parliament as two of its strongest regional rivals grapple with political challenges.

While former Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee-led TMC is staring at an existential threat as a rebel faction of 58 of its total 80 MLAs elected Ritabrata Banerjee as the leader of opposition against her choice, marking the first split in the party she founded it in 1998, DMK is weighing its options after Congress dumped it for Vijay-led TVK in Tamil Nadu.

It was the coming together of three regional parties, Samajwadi Party besides TMC and DMK, with Congress which had sealed the fate of govt's constitution amendment bill in Lok Sabha, as they together at 185 MPs made up for over one-third of total House strength, the required number to block such a legislative measure.

With TMC in disarray and DMK unlikely to be as warm to a Congress-led alliance it was so far, BJP is in a better position than ever in the House since the 2024 polls to exploit faultlines in the opposition to its advantage. There have already been murmurs that some of opposition MPs from Maharashtra are open to changing allegiance.

A TMC MP told TOI that he does not see an immediate formation of a rebel group of two-third MPs, required to pass the muster under the anti-defection law, but added that it cannot be ruled out. "Nobody could have conceived such a split among TMC MLAs. So you cannot rule out anything," he said.

The dissent, which is ostensibly directed at Mamata's perceived heir apparent and nephew Abhishek Banerjee's sway in the party, is unlikely to leave TMC's 28 MPs in LS and 13 in RS entirely unaffected, he added.

In TN, DMK's main rivalry is now with TVK, a Congress ally, and the view within BJP is that it will trade its reflexive hostility to the Centre with a more pragmatic approach.

The changed equation within the opposition and the recent assembly polls underlining BJP's dominant position, govt now hopes to push its ambitious legislative agenda, which includes a simultaneous elections, with renewed vigour.