Left's debacle in Kerala shows voters switching to BJP, erosion in strongholds

KOCHI: The ruling LDF won only one seat out of 20 in Kerala despite a very efficient campaign and fielding heavy-hitter candidates in several key constituencies. Also, unlike in 2019, there was no discernible pro-UDF wave nor a burning issue like Sabarimala, which makes the LDF rout this time something of a political conundrum.

Interestingly, after the 2019 LS poll debacle, CPM’s central committee had advised the state leadership to formulate a strategy to win over traditional Hindu vote banks.

The 2024 results in constituencies such as Alappuzha and Attingal show that the voting of a major section of Ezhava community — considered the backbone of the party — in favour of BJP affected the prospects of LDF candidates. The LDF’s vote share has dropped by just 2% — in 2019 it was 35.3% while this time it is 33.3%. As per Election Commission data, CPM vote share this time is 25.82% (51,00,964 votes) while vote share for CPI, the second biggest partner in LDF, is 6.14% (12,12,197 votes).

The erosion of votes has happened in Left strongholds. For instance, in a party bastion like Thaliparamba in Kannur, represented by CPM state secretary MV Govindan in the assembly, UDF candidate K Sudhakaran managed to secure a lead of 8,787 votes. While LDF had secured 80,719 votes in the assembly segment in the 2019 LS election, it has come down to 75,544 votes this time. Also, LDF’s Kannur candidate MV Jayarajan could secure only wafer-thin leads of just 2,616 votes in Dharmadom where CM Pinarayi Vijayan had won with a margin of over 50,123 votes in 2021 assembly polls and 3,034 votes in Mattannur from where former health minister K K Shailaja won by the record margin of over 60,000 votes. In 10 constituencies, Left candidates were defeated by a whopping margin of over 1 lakh votes.

Political observers feel that the vote erosion in Left strongholds cannot be viewed as part of the traditional pattern where people generally prefer UDF in Parliament elections and has more to do with anti-incumbency against the Left govt in the state.

Also, the CPM campaign’s excessive focus on Muslim votes and underpinning its entire campaign on issues like CAA, the Gaza invasion and Uniform Civil code backfired. The party failed to win a single seat out of eight in the Malabar region that stretches from Kasargod to Palakkad, where all seats have over 25% Muslim population.