South Goa polls: BJP used development card, Cong failed to develop positive agenda

MARGAO: While most political pundits had shied away from predicting the results of the South Goa elections citing "silent votes", chief minister Manohar Parrikar, at a news conference in Margao on April 9, three days ahead of Goa going to the polls, had predicted that the BJP would get 2,10,000 votes. He had also stressed that the accuracy level of his assessment would be within the 5% range.
BJP candidate Narendra Sawaikar polled 1,98,776 votes, which turns out to be 5.3% lower than the target set by Parrikar-a fairly realistic assessment by all counts. It was evident at that time that he was not relying solely on the results of his Mission Salcete-II for the party's victory, as he declined to go into the Salcete-specific arithmetic, despite repeated queries by mediapersons during that press briefing.
Political equations in Salcete are made up of a complex matrix. And while the BJP was hoping to alter the poll calculus in this heartland of Goa's politics, the saffron party had to contend with the marginal increase in its total vote share in all the eight assembly segments of Salcete taken together.
The BJP increased its vote share considerably in Nuvem and Benaulim assembly segments this time compared to its 2009 performance. In Nuvem, the BJP's vote share increased by over 14% (from 12% in 2009 to 26% in 2014) while that of Congress decreased by 6% (from above 70% in 2009 to nearly 64% in 2014). Almost 5% of the total votes polled were shared between Trinamool Congress' Churchill Alemao and AAP candidate Swati Kerkar. In Benaulim, the BJP bettered its performance by increasing its vote share by nearly 8% (from 15.50% in 2009 to 23 % in 2014), while Congress lost a nearly corresponding share (from 57% in 2009 to 50% in 2014). Alemao inflicted the maximum damage on the Congress in Benaulim securing above 18% of the votes polled.
In what could raise concern for the Congress is the fact that the party's vote share dipped in seven assembly segments of Salcete. The only segment where the Congress increased its vote share was in Curtorim, the home town of its candidate, Aleixo Reginaldo Lourenco, where the BJP too lost a corresponding share of 4%.
On the other hand, what could raise alarm bells for the BJP is its performance in Navelim constituency represented by fisheries minister Avertano Furtado, an independent supporting the government. In Navelim, the BJP's vote share dipped by nearly 9% from 43.50% in 2009 polls to 34% this time. Here, Churchill secured nearly 13% of the vote share while Congress' share went up by just 2%. Sources said Alemao helped in containing the Congress' lead over BJP.
Despite BJP utilizing all the weapons in its armour-the "soft saffron" image, the "moderate Parrikar" face, good governance model, et al-in order to counter the adverse fallout of the issues of communalism and the Church circular that could prove harmful to its prospects, the BJP largely fell short of storming the Congress' Salcete bastion. Alemao's dismal performance at the polls by securing less than 12,000 votes, also dented BJP's hopes of splitting the Congress votes to turn the situation in its favour. By polling less than 3% of the total vote share, Alemao has been virtually sent packing by the electorate the second time in a row following the rout of the Alemao family-raj in the 2012 assembly polls.
Sources said that what led to BJP's victory in South Goa was that it played meticulously to the scripts and strategies worked out in the war rooms by party managers.
"The overarching development card played by the BJP worked to its advantage, while the Congress had no positive agenda with which to go to the voters. Worse, Congress leaders working at cross purposes did the Congress in," said a political analyst.
So does the win for the BJP mean that the party has been able to shed its "communal" tag?
"Not yet," said poll watchers. "Whatever gains the BJP got in 2014 can, at best, be termed as the outcome of Parrikar's overreach to the minorities. Parrikar's assurance of legalizing dhirio (bull fights), the decision to grant government grants to English medium schools even at the cost of antagonizing the majority community, his frequent visits to Salcete and promising development works, are all pointers to that. Minus the Parrikar face, the minorities are ill at ease with the BJP. The BJP will have to consolidate the gains and work harder in Salcete in order to offer its Lotus as a more attractive alternative to the Hand," the added.
Sawaikar acknowledged that, while speaking to reporters after he won the polls. "Issues of communalism and secularism are raised by the Congress as per its convenience...We are happy with our performance in Salcete. In areas where we could not fare well, we will work still harder in those areas," said Sawaikar.