Hotter, drier monsoon likely; India may see up to 2°C rise

Dehradun: India could face a hotter and drier-than-normal monsoon this year, with temperatures in parts of the country projected to rise up to 2°C above seasonal norms and rainfall likely to remain below average, according to the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) Monsoon Outlook 2026 released by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) on Tuesday.

The outlook, which assesses seasonal climate conditions across the HKH region spanning Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan, said below-normal rainfall and elevated temperatures could increase the risk of drought, heatwaves, water shortages and forest fires across large parts of South Asia. At the same time, ICIMOD cautioned that a weaker monsoon would not mean fewer disasters, because long dry spells could still be interrupted by short, intense rainfall episodes capable of triggering flash floods and landslides.

For India, the warning is sharper because multiple forecasts cited in the outlook point towards below-normal precipitation across most parts of the country during the June-Sept monsoon season. India Meteorological Department (IMD) had earlier projected southwest monsoon rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), placing it in the below-normal category, while its later June forecast also indicated below-normal rainfall for the country as a whole during the month.

“The combination of reduced rainfall and elevated temperatures could significantly increase the likelihood of drought conditions, heatwaves, water shortages and forest fires across large parts of the region,” the ICIMOD outlook noted. It added that international forecasting systems, including ICIMOD’s HKH Sub-seasonal to Seasonal prediction system, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre, Copernicus Climate Change Service and South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, showed broad agreement on a drier signal over much of India.

The projected monsoon behaviour has been linked to large-scale climate drivers. Climate models indicate that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, currently in a neutral phase, may move towards El Niño conditions during the early part of the monsoon and continue through much of the season. El Niño years have historically been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over South Asia, though the outlook said a possible positive Indian Ocean Dipole later in the season could partly offset some of the drying influence.

ICIMOD also flagged below-normal Northern Hemisphere snow cover during Jan-March 2026 as another factor associated with reduced summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia. Experts said the combination of lower snow cover, higher temperatures and an evolving El Niño phase had increased concern for a region where agriculture, drinking water supply, hydropower and rural livelihoods depend heavily on monsoon rains.

“As a result, the region could experience long dry periods followed by extreme rainfall episodes capable of triggering floods, flash floods and landslides,” the outlook said. This means India and the wider HKH region may have to prepare for both water scarcity and sudden flood disasters in the same season, especially in mountain districts where steep slopes, unstable terrain and intense rain often turn local storms into emergencies.

The HKH region is particularly vulnerable because it feeds many of Asia’s major river systems and supports nearly two billion people directly or indirectly through snow, glaciers and monsoon rainfall. Lower seasonal rainfall can affect agriculture and water availability, while higher temperatures can accelerate glacier and snowmelt, increase wildfire risk and raise the possibility of glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalayas.

Mountain states such as Uttarakhand face layered risks from such a monsoon pattern. Below-normal rainfall can dry springs, reduce soil moisture and increase forest-fire susceptibility, while sudden heavy rain in narrow windows can trigger landslides, road blockages, flash floods and damage along pilgrimage and border routes. ICIMOD said climate change was already amplifying hydrometeorological hazards across the region, including floods, droughts, landslides, storms, heatwaves and wildfires.

The outlook urged govts, disaster management agencies and development planners to treat the forecast as an early warning and prepare sector-specific plans before the season intensifies. It called for anticipatory action in agriculture, water management, health, hydropower, forests, infrastructure and disaster response so that communities are not forced to react only after hazards begin. “The increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related hazards highlight the urgent need for adaptive and risk-reduction measures across the region,” the outlook said.