Tripura: Will Tripura's 'king' be its kingmaker too?

The February 16 Tripura assembly polls, the first major election in 2023, will witness a triangular contest between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Left-Congress alliance and a newbie, the Tipra Motha, led by royal scion Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma.While the BJP has launched a high-octane campaign unleashing big guns such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, home minister Amit Shah, defence minister Rajnath Singh, all eyes are on the two-year-old regional outfit, which, according to analysts, could eventually emerge as the kingmaker.The Tipra Motha has set a distinct narrative in this election with its core demand of a separate state for the state’s indigenous population, which was reduced to minority due to an uncontrolled influx from the erstwhile East Bengal (now Bangladesh). Identity politicsIn the entire northeast, Tripura, a former princely state, was the worst victim of migration which resulted in a massive demographic and linguistic transformation. The state, which merged with India in 1949, had witnessed violent clashes between tribals and non-tribals in the 1980s. It was only on May 1, 1999, that Kokborok (the main dialect of indigenous Tripuri people) was notified as an official language of the state along with Bengali. medium97908762The state also saw bouts of armed separatist movements in the 1980s and 90s, demanding the right to self-determination for the indigenous people. The Tipra Motha has now renewed the demand for a separate state for the ‘Tiprasa’ (sons of the soil). Former rebel leaders Bijoy Kumar Hrangkhwal of the now-defunct Tripura National Volunteers and Ranjit Debbarma, who used to lead the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF), have now thrown their weight behind the newly-floated political outfit.BJP’s game planReleasing the party manifesto, BJP chief JP Nadda recently said the saffron party would give more legislative, executive and financial powers to the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC), constituting two third of the state's geographic areas and home to the tribals, who form one-third of the state's estimated 40 lakh population.The manifesto claimed the party will achieve “historic permanent political solutions” in a time-bound manner by taking all constitutional, legal, executive and administrative measures without affecting the territorial integrity of the council. The issue of greater autonomy is seen as a bid to counter the Tipra Motha, which demands ‘Greater Tipraland’, a separate state. medium97908938Earlier Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said the BJP will not compromise with Tripura's territorial integrity even if it fails to form the next government in the state. Sarma heads the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) comprising the BJP and its allies in the region.“I have had two meetings with Pradyot Debbarma who is demanding Greater Tipraland. I directly told him that the BJP is totally against the division of Tripura,” he said.Eyes on tribal votesTwo years ago, the Tipra Motha led by Debbarma had swept the TTAADC elections, in which it bagged 18 of the 30 seats in the Sixth Schedule body. Prior to that, the tribal council had been ruled by the Left, which along with the Congress and BJP’s ally Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT), failed to open its account in the April 2021 polls.Autonomous district councils have similar powers and responsibilities as in states in respect to legislature and executive. The executive powers are vested with the executive committee headed by a chief executive member.The Tipra Motha, which was born amid the agitation against the controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act, has decided to go solo and hopes to sweep the 20 tribal-dominated seats that hold the key to power in the northeastern state. The party will contest 42 of the 60 seats in this election, but its chief Debbarma will not contest the polls as he clarified recently.When a single block meeting gets such a huge response we know we are winning ! Thank u Karbook you were amazing https://t.co/CbvRWVHlVn— Pradyot_Tripura (@PradyotManikya) 1676043982000Besides ‘Greater Tipraland’, the party’s manifesto promised a separate police force for the Council, 20,000 new jobs and a one-time package for militants who surrender, among others. “We will not be part of any government which does not agree to our demand [a separate state],” Debbarma, who is fondly addressed as ‘Bubagra’ (maharaja), told PTI. When asked by TOI+ if he is open to any post-poll alliance provided there is a hung assembly, Debbarma says, “No, I am not.”Unfulfilled promisesThe saffron party, which stormed to power in 2018 by ending decades of Left rule, had promised to provide 2.5 lakh jobs in its five years rule, but it remained more or less a promise on paper. The BJP had won 36 seats in 2018, with half of them coming from the tribal region. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Asked by reporters about the lack of commitment on jobs, the chairman of the BJP manifesto committee, Dr Ashoke Sinha, explained, “We have recently hiked DA [dearness allowance] for the employees and provided jobs for the unemployed. We are serious about the issue but do not want to make any false promise”.The party has also vowed to set up industry-specific manufacturing zones based on rubber, Agar and bamboo, aimed at creating more jobs in this landlocked state. “The PM Kisan Samman Nidhi of Rs 6,000 will be raised with the state government providing Rs 2,000 more,” Nadda said. The party is contesting the polls under the leadership of incumbent chief minister Manik Saha.On the other hand, the Left-Congress combine will pick a senior CPI(M) tribal leader to lead the state if the alliance is voted to power, says All-India Congress Committee general secretary Ajoy Kumar. medium97909073Although the opposition alliance has not spelled out any name, senior Left leader Jitendra Choudhury is being seen as a leading contender for the chief ministerial post if it wins the election.CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury exuded confidence that the triangular contest that is unfolding in Tripura will help the Left-Congress alliance. “This time the Tipra Motha is at the forefront in tribal areas. The IPFT is now just a rump and BJP has given them only five seats. The advantage that BJP got last time won’t be repeated. That should help the Left-Congress alliance,” Yechury told PTI.So, it is clearly going to be a battle for tribal votes and the outcome will be known on March 2 (counting day).With inputs from agencies