Weak monsoon may hit consumption story

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI/CHENNAI: India's consumption looks headed for a near-term slowdown with predictions of an El Nino-weakened monsoon likely to bring the lowest rainfall in 11 years.

Deficient rains may weigh on rural demand, impacting volume growth and crimping sales of a host of products ranging from soaps, shampoos, packaged food to two-wheelers and durables. For companies battling high input costs and margin squeeze, the challenge will be to pass on more price increases amid sluggish demand.

Corporate chiefs expect consumers to down-trade and are worried about weak festive sales. However, they are hopeful that a good rabi crop season, rising irrigation coverage and stable demand for essentials should provide some cushion, helping broader consumption. Economists, though, are factoring in a further uptick in retail inflation-by about 170 bps higher (than normal monsoon years) and a subdued agri-GVA growth, casting a shadow on wider economic outlook.

"The two-wheeler industry has a strong linkage with rural demand which is influenced by monsoon performance. A deficient monsoon may moderate near-term demand; however, underlying mobility needs and replacement demand continue to provide support," said Tsutsumu Otani, president & CEO at HMSI Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India. Adverse crop impact and further price increases could together hit festive sales, said Kamal Nandi, business head, appliances business of Godrej Enterprises Group, but added that a prolonged summer could also lead to higher sales of cooling products.

Consumers may become more value-conscious during periods of inflation and there may be some kind of down-trading but demand for essential food and household categories should remain stable, said Shrikant Kanhere, MD & CEO at AWL Agri Business. Manish Anandani, MD at Kenvue India which makes brands such as Listerine and Neutrogena expects categories dependent on rural demand to take a hit, leading to a short-term slowdown in rural growth.

Besides, if the (war-led) external headwinds of supply chain disruptions and increasing input costs exist, there could be significant impact on both urban and rural regions, creating a "cascading" effect across all industries, said Anandani.

"We do not foresee a severe impact on consumption but we need to be watchful of the kharif crop output," said Mayank Shah, chief marketing officer at Parle Products. Rural has been driving FMCG consumption over the past several quarters, compensating for a weak urban demand although consumption in urban regions has now improved.

Although the correlation between inflation and monsoons have weakened over years due to better supply-side management and rise in irrigation coverage, risks remain as the development comes at a time of high crude and fertiliser prices, said Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank, adding a risk of 0.6% to their baseline retail inflation forecast of 4.9% in FY27.

"El Nino years are usually associated with a moderation in worker demand for MNREGA and a fall in big ticket purchases like tractors," said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank. Tractor makers, however, expect demand to be supported by healthy rural cash flows and disciplined dealer inventories.
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