Trump’s Middle East peace remains under construction and Israel and Iran shoot at each other

TOI correspondent from Washington: US President Donald Trump is once again scrambling to preserve a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, insisting that a broader peace agreement is within reach even as renewed missile exchanges, mutual threats, and deep mistrust continue to push the Middle East toward another dangerous escalation, much to global frustration.


The latest flare-up over the weekend marked the most serious breakdown of the US-brokered ceasefire that took effect in April. Israeli strikes on targets linked to Hezbollah in Lebanon quickly expanded into attacks on Iranian assets, including a major petrochemical facility, prompting Tehran to launch ballistic missiles at Israel and threaten further retaliation. Although both sides halted major operations on Monday, neither offered assurances that the truce would hold.


Trump sought to project confidence, declaring on social media that “Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on ‘Peace’ are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a ‘Final Deal’ is reached. Things should move quickly.”


The president's optimistic rhetoric, however, increasingly contrasts with the reality on the ground. More than two weeks after Trump announced that a breakthrough agreement with Iran would be unveiled “shortly,” negotiations remain stalled, while military exchanges continue across the region.


The central obstacle remains the vast gulf between Washington and Tehran. Iranian officials reportedly want the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets as part of any arrangement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart talks on Tehran's nuclear program. US negotiators have resisted those demands amid fierce opposition from Republican hawks and pro-Israel conservatives.

The political problem for Trump is particularly acute because any agreement involving sanctions relief or the unfreezing of Iranian funds risks inviting comparisons with the 2015 nuclear accord negotiated by former President Barack Obama, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Trump built much of his foreign-policy orientation on denouncing that agreement as a capitulation to Tehran before withdrawing the US from it in 2018. Any deal that appears to resemble Obama's framework would expose him to charges of hypocrisy from allies and critics alike.


Those concerns have already surfaced publicly amid constant taunts of "TACO" -- Trump Always Chickens Out. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reportedly compared leaked elements of the proposed accord to the Obama-era nuclear deal, triggering an unusually sharp response from the White House, whose Communications Director Steven Cheung said Pompeo "has no idea what the f**k he’s talking about."

Between all this, the President has spent inordinate amount of time talking about his favorite civil projects, including construction of a White House ballroom, resurfacing a reflecting pool in front of the Lincoln Memorial, and restoring fountains across the capital. On Monday, he is scheduled to attend Game Three of the NBA finals in New York City, days before a cage fight he is hosting in front of the White House on his 80th birthday next week.


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Iran hawks too remain deeply sceptical of Trump's approach. Their concern is that the president, eager to claim a diplomatic victory and avoid a prolonged military confrontation, could settle for restrictions on Iran's nuclear program while leaving much of Tehran's missile infrastructure and regional proxy network intact.


That scepticism is reinforced by Trump's own governing style. Throughout his political career, the president has shown a preference for headline-grabbing announcements over lengthy technical negotiations and fine print. Associates have frequently described his impatience with tedious diplomatic processes, which he has often sometimes characterized as “boring” or unnecessarily prolonged.


The Iran issue, however, is proving resistant to quick fixes. Unlike business deals, arms-control agreements require painstaking verification mechanisms, inspection regimes, and complex sequencing of sanctions relief and compliance measures. Those details are precisely where negotiations have bogged down.


Meanwhile, neither side trusts the other. Iranian leaders remain convinced that Washington could abandon any agreement, just as Trump abandoned Obama's nuclear deal. US officials, for their part, question whether Tehran would fully comply with inspection requirements or limits on uranium enrichment. The result is a stalemate broken by periodic military escalation.
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