India GDP Q3 Growth Data 2026 Highlights: Real GDP grows at 7.8% in first GDP data under new series

India GDP Growth Live: Economy shows robust revival as manufacturing surges 13.3% and private investment picks up pace

Rumki Majumdar, Economist at Deloitte India, highlighted the strong momentum in India’s economy, saying, "Investment activity seems to have strengthened, with gross fixed capital formation growing 7.8%. While government capital expenditure remains strong, we are also seeing early signs of a pickup in private investment. With consumption coming in at 8.7%, we expect investment spending to only improve going forward."

On sectoral performance, she noted, "Manufacturing has seen a stellar performance over the past two years. Its share in GDP has also moved up, but moderately. Surprisingly, services sector contribution to GDP has been revised down whereas agriculture sector has moved up by almost 2%, and that has been because of agriculture output moving higher up the value chain."

Explaining the revised GDP methodology, Majumdar said, "The revised GDP framework reflects how India’s economy has evolved over the past decade, particularly with the rise of digital and platform-based services such as shared mobility, OTT platforms, and e-commerce. The new methodology incorporates a much wider set of administrative datasets, including GST transaction data, e-Vahan vehicle registrations, and other digital records, allowing economic activity to be captured more comprehensively."

Looking ahead, she added, "Given that the first quarter growth of the year has been revised down significantly, there will be some recalibration of growth for the fiscal year. The revised estimate for the FY is 7.6%, so most likely, the fourth quarter will likely be around 7.5%. What is heartening to know that the next year growth is likely to be stronger as per the CEA, and the growth is likely to range between 7.0% to 7.4%. This is a very robust growth to expect, backed by strategic budget reforms and the various trade agreements that we have been signing."

On manufacturing, she said, "Manufacturing delivered an impressive 13.3% growth in Q3 FY2026, up from 10.8% in the same quarter last year, reflecting a strong rebound in industrial activity. While stronger manufacturing growth was expected given the robust IIP performance during the quarter, the revised GDP series suggests that the sector has been performing even better than previously estimated."

India GDP Growth Live: 7-7.4% GDP growth projected for next year

Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran on Friday said the growth outlook for the coming financial year has been raised by 20 basis points to a range of 7–7.4 per cent after incorporating estimates from the updated GDP series.

The Economic Survey, tabled in Parliament in January, had earlier projected the economy to expand by 6.8–7.2 per cent in 2026–27.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has introduced a revised set of annual and quarterly National Accounts Estimates using 2022–23 as the base year, replacing the earlier series that used 2011–12 as the reference year.

"...we are improving our GDP growth outlook for FY27 from 6.8 to 7.2 previously to 7 to 7.4 per cent under the new series...the economy is more likely to achieve a number closer to 7.4 per cent rather than 7 per cent," Nageswaran said at a press conference announcing the new series.

He added that prevailing economic indicators suggest nominal GDP growth could be around 11 per cent, with the overall size of the economy expected to comfortably exceed the $4 trillion level.

Nageswaran emphasised that economic activity in India continues to display solid momentum, backed by expansion across multiple sectors.
Under the revised series, the economy is estimated to grow by 7.6 per cent in 2025–26, compared with 7.1 per cent in the previous year.

India GDP Growth Live: ‘Continue to see FY27 growth at 7.1-7.2%’

The Q3FY27 GDP growth estimate at 7.8% , came a tad below our estimate of 8%. The base revision and the new GDP series suggests that there is an upside bias to manufacturing growth vs old series but overall there is not a significant diversion between the two. We continue to see FY27 growth at 7.1-7.2%, says Garima Kapoor, Deputy Head of Research and Economist at Elara Capital.

India GDP Growth Live: When will India become third largest?

Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran said: We are on course to becoming the top three or the top four largest economies in the world. There is no doubt about that. It will happen in the course of the next few years. Our growth rate post covid has been probably one of the best if not the best in the world, especially among G20 economies.

Whether a particular relative position is reached or not will also depend on many other factors, like the exchange rate, which, in India's case, did not go in our favor in 2025-26. That will naturally have an impact.

So the timing, given global uncertainty, given what happens to exchange rates, and the growth rates in other countries could be variable.

India GDP Growth Live: Will IMF revise its grade for data?

IMF does a data assessment regularly. There are three or four major areas of concern which had been highlighted, and I think those concerns have more than well been handled. So I suppose the final assessment is up to them, but on our part, we are confident of the data changes, says government official.

India GDP Growth Live: What CEA has to say

Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran believes that the momentum in the economy is good enough to deliver a 7.3% growth rate in the fourth quarter.

India GDP Growth Live: Higher than expected GDP growth

India’s GDP data for Q3 FY26 and the Second Advance Estimates for FY26 have both come in above 7.5%, marginally exceeding our expectations. Importantly, the headline GDP and GVA trajectories under the new series are not materially different from those under the old series, suggesting continuity in the underlying growth narrative rather than a statistical distortion.

That said, nominal GDP growth for the year continues to remain below 9%, implying that while real activity is robust, the nominal backdrop — crucial for revenue buoyancy and profit growth — is relatively contained.

On the supply side, the strong performance of manufacturing, alongside sustained traction across most services segments, is reassuring. Manufacturing momentum indicates improving operating leverage and capacity utilisation, while services continue to reflect resilient domestic demand and steady formalisation.

On the demand side, both private final consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation recorded healthy growth — above 7% — for both the quarter and the full year. This simultaneous strength in consumption and investment is particularly significant, as it signals a balanced growth composition rather than a one-legged expansion.

These better-than-expected numbers have clear market implications. For equities, the improved growth impulse strengthens the outlook for corporate earnings, especially for cyclical and domestic-demand-oriented sectors. For the debt market, stronger real growth — even with moderate nominal expansion — improves the outlook for government finances by supporting tax collections and reducing fiscal slippage risks, says Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist & Executive Director, Anand Rathi Group.

India GDP Growth Live: Sectoral composition of nominal GVA in Q3 FY26

India's Real GDP Growth: Quarterly Data Under New Series

India GDP Growth Live: Key Highlights

➢ Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 7.6% in FY 2025-26. Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth of 8.6%. These growth rates are revised upward from their respective First Advance Estimates computed using previous Base Year (2011-12).

➢ Overall Economic performance in FY 2025-26 is primarily on account of robust Real growth observed in Second Quarter (8.4%) and Third Quarter (7.8%).

➢ The Economy has exhibited sustained performance, recording Real GDP growth rates of 7.2% and 7.1% respectively during FY 2023–24 and FY 2024–25.

➢ Nominal GDP has registered 11.0% and 9.7% growth rates during FY 2023–24 and FY 2024–25 respectively.

➢ Manufacturing sector has been the major driver in contributing to the resilient performance of the economy in consecutive 3 financial years after rebasing. This sector has attained double digit growth rates in FY 2023-24 and FY 2025-26.

➢ Secondary and Tertiary sectors have boosted the performance of the economy by registering above 9.0% growth rate in FY 2025-26.

➢ ‘Trade, Repair, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting, Storage’ sector has attained a growth rate of 10.1% at Constant Prices in FY 2025-26.

➢ On the Consumption side, both the Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) have exhibited more than 7.0% growth rate in FY 2025-26.

India GDP Growth Live: Why 2022-23 as the new base year

According to MoSPI, the Financial Year 2022–23 has been selected as base year, as it represents a recent normal year (after COVID), with availability of robust and comprehensive data across sectors of the economy, making it an appropriate benchmark for the new series of Annual and Quarterly National Accounts Estimates.

India GDP Growth Live: GDP for the base year 2022-23

GDP for the base year 2022-23 is estimated as ₹261.18 lakh crore. Real GDP or GDP at constant prices for the years 2023-24 and 2024-25 stands at ₹280.01 lakh crore and ₹299.89 lakh crore, respectively, showing a growth of 7.2% during 2023-24, and 7.1% during 2024-25.

India GDP Growth Live: Quarterly GVA growth

Real GVA in Q3 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at ₹77.38 lakh crore, against ₹71.77 lakh crore in Q3 of FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 7.8%. Nominal GVA in Q3 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at ₹82.58 lakh crore, against ₹76.35 lakh crore in Q3 of FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 8.2%.

India GDP Growth Live: Real GVA growth

Real GVA is estimated at ₹294.40 lakh crore in the year 2025-26, against ₹273.36 lakh crore in FY 2024-25, registering a growth rate of 7.7% as compared to 7.3% growth rate in 2024-25. Nominal GVA is estimated to attain a level of ₹313.61 lakh crore during FY 2025-26, against ₹288.54 lakh crore in 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 8.7%.

India GDP Growth Live: Full year GDP growth seen at 7.6%

Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹322.58 lakh crore in the FY 2025-26, against the First Revised Estimate (FRE) of GDP for the year 2024-25 of ₹299.89 lakh crore. The growth rate in Real GDP during 2025-26 is estimated at 7.6% as compared to 7.1 % in 2024-25. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹345.47 lakh crore in the year 2025-26, against ₹318.07 lakh crore in 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 8.6%.

India GDP Growth Live: Q3 real GDP growth at 7.8%

Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices in Q3 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at ₹84.54 lakh crore, against ₹78.41 lakh crore in Q3 of FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 7.8%. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in Q3 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at ₹90.91 lakh crore, against ₹83.46 lakh crore in Q3 of FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 8.9%.

India GDP Growth Live: Multi-quarter high

India's GDP growth had hit a multi-quarter high in the second quarter of FY 2025-26. Q3 is the first quarter for the new GDP data series and also the first full quarter of Donald Trump administration's 50% tariffs on India.

India GDP Growth Live: How many times has base year been revised?

The first series was 1948–49, which was introduced in 1950s. Since then it has been revised 8 times:

From 1948-49 to 1960-61 in 1967

From 1960-61 to 1970-71 in 1978

From 1970-71 to 1980-81 in 1988

From 1980-81 to 1993-94 in 1999

From 1993-94 to 1999-2000 in 2006

From 1999-2000 to 2004-05 in 2010

From 2004-05 to 2011-12 in 2015

From 2011-12 to 2022-23 in 2026

India GDP Growth Live: How are contributions of gig workers captured?

The revised base year series improves the measurement of emerging sectors such as digital services, platform-based activities and gig work.

In the earlier series, these activities were already included for the corporate sector through data obtained from the MCA-21 database. In the 2022-23 series, the availability of two regular annual surveys — ASUSE and PLFS — enables more precise estimation of the contribution of these sectors within the household segment, including unincorporated enterprises, self-employed individuals and informal economic activities.

ASUSE includes specific economic activity classifications designed to capture gig-related work, such as drivers working through aggregator platforms and delivery services. As a result, the new series provides a more comprehensive and accurate coverage of all economic activities.

India GDP Growth Live: Upside surprise expected?

Given the strong high frequency indicator prints related to auto sales, FMCG sales, oil consumption that were supported by the GST boost as well as festivities, the Q3 growth numbers can come with an upside surprise, says Ranen Banerjee. Partner and Leader, Economic Advisory Services Government Sector Leader, PwC India.

India GDP Growth Live: Capturing household sector growth

The revised GDP series introduces a more detailed approach to measuring the household sector.

In the earlier series, estimates for the household sector in the base year were derived from the Survey on Unincorporated Sector Enterprises and the Employment Survey. For subsequent years, these figures were projected forward using growth trends observed between surveys or through the use of proxy indicators.

Under the new series, the household sector is estimated annually using actual data collected through regular surveys, particularly the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) and the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). This method provides a more responsive and accurate representation of the household sector and removes the dependence on base-year projections.

India GDP Growth Live: How the methodology changes

The revised GDP series introduces important methodological enhancements.

Greater dynamism in household sector estimates
Under the earlier series, estimates for the household sector were derived either by extending results from previous surveys or by relying on proxy indicators. In the updated series, actual levels are calculated using annual survey data, particularly from ASUSE and PLFS, allowing for more direct and timely measurement.

Shift to double deflation and improved extrapolation methods
The new methodology applies double deflation in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors, while single extrapolation is used for other sectors. The earlier practice of single deflation has been discontinued. Price adjustments are now carried out at a finer level of detail, using more than 260 item-specific CPI deflators covering a wide range of goods and services.

Reduced discrepancies through Supply and Use Tables
Supply and Use Tables have been incorporated into the National Accounts framework to reduce differences between GDP estimates based on production and expenditure approaches. The SUT framework maps the output of industries as supply and its utilisation by industries and final consumers as use, ensuring that overall supply equals total demand.

Revision of rates and ratios
Key parameters and ratios used in the compilation process have been updated using findings from newly available surveys and studies undertaken by MoSPI in collaboration with expert institutions.

Better classification of multi-activity companies
Previously, the entire value added of companies engaged in multiple activities was assigned to their principal line of business. In the new series, activity-wise turnover data reported in MGT-7 and MGT-7A filings are used to distribute value added and related aggregates across different business activities.

More detailed estimation of PFCE
Private Final Consumption Expenditure is now calculated using a combined approach that includes expanded use of the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey, direct estimates derived from production and related datasets, and the commodity flow method. The series also adopts the updated COICOP 2018 classification standard.

Expanded use of new data sources
The revised series incorporates additional datasets such as GST records, PFMS information, and e-Vahan registrations. These sources offer broader coverage and shorter reporting lags and are used both for compiling estimates and validating results.

India GDP Growth Live: Nominal GDP at 8.5%?

A report by Union Bank of India indicated that nominal GDP growth likely eased further to 8.5 per cent, compared with 8.7 per cent in the second quarter and 10.3 per cent in the corresponding period last year. The slowdown in nominal growth has been attributed to a decline in the GDP deflator, reflecting softer inflation.

The bank noted that its projections are based on the earlier base year, citing uncertainty over how the revised GDP base year may affect the official estimates.
According to the report, the economic outlook for FY26 remains generally stable, and initial signals for FY27 point to sustained growth momentum.

However, it added that the annual projections would need to be reassessed once greater clarity emerges on the upcoming GDP base revision by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

India GDP Growth Live: When will new series GDP data be released?

On February 27, 2026, annual as well as quarterly GDP estimates covering the period from 2022-23 to 2025-26 will be published. The historical back-series data is likely to be made available by December 2026.

In line with established practice in India, back-series estimates are first recalculated using the updated methodology of the new GDP series up to the earlier base year. Thereafter, the data is linked at a detailed level and extended historically up to 1950-51. The precise approach to compiling the back-series will be finalised in consultation with the Advisory Committee constituted to assist the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

India GDP Growth Live: 6.8-7.2% growth for India next FY?

India’s economy is projected to expand at a rate of 6.8–7.2 per cent in the coming financial year, according to the EY Economy Watch report released on Thursday.

The report noted that achieving the goal of a developed India by 2047 would require a significant rise in the tax-to-GDP ratio, primarily through stronger tax compliance, as most major tax reforms have already been implemented.

“In the background of India's extensive bilateral trade agreements with other major economies or economic groups, India’s medium-term prospects have brightened up. We estimate India’s real GDP growth to be in the range of 6.8-7.2 per cent in FY27,” EY India Chief Policy Advisor D K Srivastava said.

The report also observed that the current financial year saw major tax policy changes, particularly in personal income tax and the Goods and Services Tax. These measures resulted in substantial revenue concessions, with the intention of boosting disposable incomes and supporting consumer spending.

According to the report, these tax changes led to a notable reduction in the Centre’s gross tax revenues, which were likely to fall below the budgeted projections for FY26. Despite concerns over lower tax collections, the central government was still expected to meet its fiscal deficit target for FY26.

India GDP Growth Live: GDP projections under current series

According to the existing GDP series, India’s economy, which is among the fastest-growing major economies globally, is projected to record growth of 7.4 per cent in 2025–26, compared with an expansion of 6.5 per cent in 2024–25.

Nominal GDP, which measures economic output at prevailing market prices, is expected to increase by 8.0 per cent during the current financial year.

A revised GDP series with 2022–23 as the base year is scheduled to be released on February 27, along with back-series data covering the previous four years.

India GDP Growth Live: Stock market opens in red

On weak global cues, Nifty50 and BSE Sensex, opened Friday's trade on a negative note. The GDP data will be released in post market hours and the market is likely to react to it early next week.

India GDP Growth Live: What changes in the new series?

The revised Gross Domestic Product series with 2022–23 as the base year will incorporate data from sources such as the goods and services tax network, the e-Vahan database and household services provided by cooks, drivers and domestic workers, with the aim of improving the accuracy of economic estimates.
GDP figures for the October to December 2025 quarter based on the updated series are scheduled to be released on Friday.

According to a set of frequently asked questions issued by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, the base year is periodically revised to capture structural changes that take place in the economy over time. Under the latest revision, the base year for national accounts has been shifted from 2011–12 to 2022–23.

Although the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation typically updates the data series every five years, the exercise was delayed due to the Covid pandemic and the rollout of the goods and services tax.

The ministry also indicated that back-series data under the revised framework is likely to be published by December 2026.

India GDP Growth Live: GDP growth at 8.3%?

India’s economic growth in the third quarter of the current financial year is expected to remain strong at 8.3 per cent despite the impact of a high base, according to a report by Union Bank of India.

The report indicated that GDP growth in Q3 FY26 is estimated to have held at 8.3 per cent, supported by the momentum following the GST rate reduction, even though the comparison with the previous year creates an unfavourable base effect.

It stated, "GDP data for Q3 FY26, due on 27th February, likely clocked 8.3%, sharply higher from the same period previous year (Q3 FY25: 6.4 per cent)".
Growth in Gross Value Added is projected to have strengthened to 8.0 per cent in Q3 FY26 compared with 6.5 per cent in the same quarter a year earlier, although it may be slightly lower than the 8.1 per cent recorded in the second quarter.

The report also noted that nominal GDP growth is expected to have eased further to 8.5 per cent, down from 8.7 per cent in the previous quarter and 10.3 per cent in the corresponding period last year. This moderation in nominal growth is mainly attributed to a decline in the GDP deflator as inflation softened.

India GDP Growth Live: How will new series differ from the current series?

In terms of new features, the new series will have better and dynamic coverage of household or unorganised sectors on account of the unincorporated sector survey and the PLFS (periodic labour force survey), as opposed to the indicator-based extrapolation approach followed in the existing series. It will also use administrative data from different sources, primarily GST, Vahan data, Public Financial Management System, petroleum and gas sector. Currently, in the case of multi-activity enterprises, the entire contribution is allocated as per its major activity.

While rebasing, attempt has been made to segregate economic activities and consequently the value added by each business activity of the enterprise. With the availability of frame of active limited liability partnerships (LLP), they will be covered comprehensively in the new series. The revised series will also do away with single deflator entirely for manufacturing and agriculture. Wherever double deflation is not feasible in services sector, single deflator or volume extrapolation method will be used, says Statistics and programme implementation secretary Saurabh Garg.

India GDP Growth Live: What is GDP?

Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, represents the total monetary value of all final goods and services produced within a country’s economy during a specific accounting period. To make meaningful comparisons of economic performance across different time periods, it is essential that consistent measurement techniques and data sources are applied in each period.

India GDP Growth Live: Major changes in GDP data

India is set to introduce major changes in the way real GDP growth is calculated under a revised national accounts series scheduled to be released this week, according to the country’s top statistics official. The updated framework will incorporate more detailed price adjustments in response to concerns raised by economists about the accuracy of existing methods.

Real GDP in India is estimated by adjusting nominal economic output for inflation using price indices. Economists have pointed out that the current approach has become outdated because it relies heavily on the wholesale price index rather than the consumer price index, which is tracked more closely.

“We will now use about 500–600 items from the new CPI and the old WPI series, compared with about 180 earlier, to deflate the output and improve accuracy of the data,” Saurabh Garg, secretary in the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, said in an interview.